SAN
FRANCISCO — Measurements of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic
ice offered evidence that humans have been changing the global climate
since thousands of years before the industrial revolution.
Beginning 8,000 years ago, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide
began to rise as humans started clearing forests, planting crops and
raising livestock, a scientist said Tuesday. Methane levels started
increasing 3,000 years later.
The combined increases of the two greenhouse gases implicated in
global warming were slow but steady and staved off what should have
been a period of significant natural cooling, said Bill Ruddiman,
emeritus professor at the University of Virginia.
The changes also disrupted regular patterns that dominated the
400,000 years of atmospheric history that scientists have teased from
samples of ancient ice.
"You have 395,000 years of history, which sets some rules, and 5,000 years that break those rules," Ruddiman said.
Ruddiman briefed reporters on his theory Tuesday at the autumn meeting
of the American Geophysical Union. Further details appear in the
December issue of the journal Climatic Change.
Previously, scientists widely assumed it was only with the onset of
the factory age that human activity had any significant effect on the
global climate. The prehistoric changes in carbon dioxide and methane
levels have been noted before but were attributed to natural causes,
Ruddiman said.
"It's a great new idea we need to talk about and evaluate," said
Bette Otto-Bliesner, a paleoclimate expert at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, who was not connected with the research.
Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane naturally
fluctuate, in part because of changes in the orbit of the Earth and the
resulting variations in the amounts of sunlight.
But human activity apparently thwarted expected decreases in the
atmospheric concentrations of both gases. Leading the change was the
revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of agriculture and
animal husbandry, Ruddiman said.
Analysis of air trapped in ice cores drilled from the Antarctic ice
sheet show anomalous increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8,000
years ago — just as crop lands began to replace previously forested
regions across Asia and Europe.
About 5,000 years ago, the ice cores reflect a similarly anomalous
rise in methane levels, this time tied to increased emissions from
flooded rice fields, as well as burgeoning numbers of livestock,
Ruddiman said.
The prehistoric practices apparently overrode a buildup of ice that
models predict should have occurred beginning 5,000 years ago.